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Why These 15 Scientists Marched For Climate Change Action

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A Sign From The September 21, 2014 March For Climate Action In New York City.
Emily Gertz

Scientists from research institutions, non-profits, and the private sector made themselves seen and heard on Sunday, September 21, when 310,000 people marched through New York City to demand action on climate change.  This “People's Climate March” was timed to coincide with a special climate summit for world leaders at the United Nations on Tuesday, September 23. 

Most of the scientists Popular Science talked with said they were marching to call for much stronger action on climate change. “There is no point in doing the research if no one is going to listen to the results,” said Allison Jacobel, a paleoclimatologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Humanity “has to survive the next thousand years,” said her colleague Etienne Dunn-Sigouin.

Among the non-scientists who joined the science section of the march, a man named Mark told us he was primarily there for the birds, such as the plush blue-footed booby sitting on top of his baseball cap. “The world is in danger and the powers who make decisions about the state of the environment are not responsive enough yet,” said Mark. “Hopefully this march will change some minds.”


India's Navy Soon To Be Stealthier

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INS Kochi And INS Chennai Under Construction
The bodies of all Kolkata class destroyers are designed to make the ships appear smaller on radar.
Ajai Shukla, via Wikimedia Commons

When Theodore Roosevelt wanted to tell the world that the United States had arrived as a major naval power in 1907, he sent the Great White Fleet around the globe, in a symbol as conspicuous as possible. Today, India is in the midst of naval expansion, and for their fleet, they want the exact opposite of conspicuous. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (India’s DARPA) says all naval ships of the future will have stealth features

“Stealth” in modern military usage refers to a series of techniques that make it hard for enemy sensors, especially radar, to detect vehicles. One of these techniques is radar-absorbent coating, which reduces the amount of radio signal that reflects off a vehicle, making it look smaller than it really is. (In France, wind farms are testing turbines with this material to avoid radar disruption.) Another way to make vehicles stealthy is by having them reflect radar signals away from the receiver. This is often done with multiple flat panels, as seen in both the iconic F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter and the modern American Zumwalt Destroyer

Bhujanga Rao, Director-General of Naval Systems and Materials for the Defence Research and Development Organization, talked with The Hindu about this stealth design:

Dr. Rao said there was a difference in designing stealth features for a ship as opposed to that for an aircraft. While the main focus would be in reducing infra-red and radar cross section signatures for an aircraft, many other aspects have to be dealt with while making “silent ships.” Besides infra-red and radar, the signatures of acoustics, magnetic, electric and hydro-dynamic wake have to be minimised.

India's main rival, Pakistan, is also modernizing its navy, and the major shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean are traveled by craft from all over the world.

On the sea, stealth techniques are one way to conceal vessels from sensors, but they’re not necessarily the best ones, and they can be expensive. The Sea Shadow, an experimental stealth vessel built for the U.S. Navy in the 1980s, was sold for scrap in 2012. Hiding from radar on the surface of the ocean is tricky, but there’s a much easier way to go undetected in the ocean: Go beneath the surface. Submarines are harder to see, which makes them better stealth ships, but worse for showing off.

The Devils And The Deep Blue Sky

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Flight Path
Knievel intended to soar 1,600 feet across Idaho's Snake River Canyon, but his rocket ship's parachute deployed prematurely and carried him back.
Photograph by Dmitri Alexander
Sporting a star-spangled jumpsuit and clutching a hollow scepter that typically concealed a stash of Wild Turkey, Evel Knievel strode through a crowd of more than 10,000 on the rim of Idaho's Snake River Canyon. Potato farmers, housewives, hippies, bikers, Boy Scouts, topless women, and a marching band all surged forward into a chain-link fence that was the only barrier between them and their hero, the man who took flight on the wings of a Harley. People were so pumped that many had rioted a day before, burning Port-A-Potties and ripping the roofs off of beer trucks.

Undistracted by the Woodstock-like bacchanal, Knievel stoically climbed a 150-foot-high earthen mound at the lip of the canyon and approached a steel launch tower. Mounted onto the girded structure was the Skycycle X-2, a red, white, and blue rocket ship with wheels on its belly and Knievel's name emblazoned down the side in gold. When he reached it, he didn't even glance back to acknowledge his fans. He simply raised his scepter to the sky.

The date was September 8, 1974, and Knievel was minutes from attempting his most dangerous stunt ever. No longer satisfied to jump a mere 100 feet over a row of cars or trucks, he wanted to fly an order of magnitude farther—more than 1,600 feet across the deep, sheer-walled Snake River Canyon near Twin Falls. The British journalist David Frost, who was covering the jump for ABC's Wide World of Sports, greeted Knievel at the base of the tower. "Are you afraid?" he asked. Knievel looked borderline catatonic, his eyes unfocused and his breath coming in gulps, but he replied with signature deadpan cool. "I think that a man was put here on Earth to live," he said, "not just to exist."

A crane lowered Knievel to the cramped seat of the Skycycle. Tilted upward at a 56-degree angle, he saw only sky; far below lay what he had described to a reporter as "that big ugly hole in the ground grinning up at me like a death's head." The Sky-cycle's inventor, Bob Truax, stood nearby. Though he was a renowned rocket scientist who had helped develop the U.S. military's Thor and Polaris missile systems, he, too, was concerned. Afraid that any media leaks would steal the thunder from the actual event, the jump's promoters had only allowed Truax to test one Skycycle prototype, and it had crashed.

Any sane person would think Knievel's jump was lunacy. His most passionate fans don't see it that way.

The announcer ominously counted down to one. The Skycycle blasted off with a gush of white steam. And almost instantly, the crowd could tell that something had gone wrong. The landing parachute deployed prematurely. The rocket ship corkscrewed to the right. Knievel made it across the canyon, but the wind caught the chute and blew him back. Dangling straight down, engine spent, the Skycycle sank to the bottom of the canyon and smashed into the rocks. Evacuated by helicopter, Knievel suffered only a cut to his nose. The real wound was to his pride: Until his death in 2007, he was haunted by the false rumor that he had gotten scared and triggered the chute.

This summer, with the 40th anniversary of the epic jump fast approaching, Scott Truax drove me out to the site in a red, white, and blue panel truck that looked exactly like Knievel's "Supervan." The son of Bob Truax, who died in 2010, Scott had been at the canyon that day as a six-year-old boy. Now 46, he had thinning hair shaved close to the skull. He wore baggy shorts and thick-framed white sunglasses, giving him the look of a landlocked surfer. Truax parked the van by the earthen mound where the launch tower had once stood, and we got out and climbed to the top. The view was dizzying. The golden canyon wall and brushy plateau that Knievel attempted to reach were much farther away than they looked in videos; the Snake, which probably would have drowned him had he landed directly in it, lay hundreds of feet below.

Scott Truax
Photograph by Dmitri Alexander
Any sane person would gaze at this landscape and think that Knievel's jump was lunacy. But his most passionate fans don't see it that way. They say Knievel's scheme could have worked. And to prove it, five teams are racing to pull it off—and claim Knievel's mantle in the process. Scott Truax is one of those believers. He has dug out his dad's original Skycycle plans and assembled a team to construct a replica. And he has enlisted a Hollywood stuntman to fly it. This fall, Truax will return to Snake River. "I am building a rocket to prove that Evel Knievel didn't chicken out and to pay homage to my dad," he said as we stood by the precipice. "Our goal is to cure history."

***

The Snake River sequel hit full stride in a government meeting room in Boise last fall. The men assembled there looked like they had answered a casting call for The World’s Wildest Stuntmen! Red Bull–sponsored BASE jumper Miles Daisher sat in a white folding chair; the professional skydiver Scott Smith lounged nearby. Scott Truax stood in the back of the chamber with his Skycycle pilot—Eddie Braun, who had wrecked cars for The Dukes of Hazzard and The Fall Guy and coordinated stunts for movies like Rush Hour. Seated in front of them was Big Ed Beckley, a 63-year-old, Texas-based showman who, at 326 pounds, billed himself as the "World's Largest Motorcycle Daredevil." Finally, there was the boyish-looking Troy Hartman, who, after his expulsion from the Air Force Academy, became famous for feats like escaping a car dropped from a plane and skydiving with his parachute fully on fire.

Big Ed Beckley
Photograph by Dmitri Alexander

All of them were chasing one of the stunt world's most coveted feats—a triumphant Snake River leap. Doing the jump "is like recreating Houdini's most famous failed trick," Smith later told me, "only it is even more iconic." Success would require not just the raw bravery of Knievel—who had the "biggest balls on the planet," as biographer Leigh Montville indelicately put it—but also the ingenuity of the finest garage inventor. Riding a homemade rocket ship over a canyon was only somewhat less audacious than flying a paper airplane to the moon.

The stuntmen all wanted to touch down on the same piece of earth on the north side of the Snake, Knievel's original landing site. Smelling money, the Idaho Department of Lands decided to auction the lease to those rights. The bidding opened at $50,000 and climbed rapidly. Daisher folded first, after his $658,000 bid was surpassed. Braun had started the auction willing to commit $1 million, but after $850,000 he and Truax got cold feet and bowed out. Hartman quit at $860,000. That left only Smith to duke it out with Beckley.

Of all of the daredevils in the room, none seemed more improbable—or colorful—than Big Ed. Beckley had discovered his motorcycle-riding talents as a teenager growing up in western Kansas, and he was 21 when he saw Evel Knievel perform for the first time. Beckley was impressed not just by Knievel's riding but by his lifestyle. As motorcycle racer Skip Van Leeuwen recalled in the documentary True Evel, Knievel would tell kids to study and treat their parents right, and "two hours later, he'd be chasing 15 girls naked around his boat." Beckley was inspired. "Here I was living in pucker brush, scooping manure for all of these farmers, and it was like, 'God, there has to be something bigger and better than this,'" he says.

The "Supervan"
Scott Truax created a replica of the "Supervan" that transported Evel Knievel's rocket ship. "There's never been anything in my life that has grabbed the way this project has," he says.
Photograph by Dmitri Alexander
Beckley got a job with a touring stunt show called the Death Riders and, for $150 a night, jumped over trucks and people on his motorcycle. He detonated sticks of TNT at his feet, which felt like "being stung by a thousand wasps," and drove his motorcycle down hundred-foot-long tunnels of flaming straw bales. Before long, Beckley discovered that he could make more money for less work—a single, spectacular jump over a long row of cars and trucks—and by the mid 1980s, he was performing at the Silverdome, the Superdome, and Madison Square Garden. What Beckley and his contemporaries could never do, though, was surpass the most famous rider of all. "There was one gunfighter we all wanted to get, and that was Evel," he says.
"When I felt them icy fingers coming up my back, I knew that was Knievel. And he said, 'Go for it!'"

So Beckley came to the auction armed with decades-old ambition. He also had a deep-pocketed supporter: His then-girlfriend, an affluent Texas rancher and businesswoman, was staking him. "Don't you dare let them beat you!" the other stuntmen heard her urge him repeatedly. "This is your dream!" Smith made his final offer: $941,000. Beckley countered at $943,000, and the lease was his.

Earlier that month, Beckley had made his own pilgrimage to Knievel's launch hill in Twin Falls. "I was standing on the edge looking out across the Snake River Canyon," he says. "When I felt them icy fingers coming up my back, I knew that was Knievel. And he said, 'Go for it!'"

***

Scott Truax parked his ancient Ford Festiva—a vehicle he affectionately called the "Turdmobile"—in front of an unmarked warehouse in Twin Falls. He entered through the office while I waited outside, then slowly raised the articulated main door to reveal a cavernous workspace. Stepping into it, I walked past the parked Supervan, which gleamed with an immaculate coat of new paint. A sign taped to the wall read, "95 days till launch."

Truax hadn't given up after his defeat at the auction. In fact, he was now buzzing with the pride of a new parent—the night before, his team had fully assembled their rocket ship for the first time. "Everyone went ape," he said. "I didn't know whether to cry or to be sexually aroused."

The all-white Skycycle X-2 perched on a red stand in the back of the warehouse, like some secretive piece of Cold War weaponry. The nose cone yielded to a long, missilelike fuselage. The center of the body had a small, open cockpit, like that of a World War I fighter plane, and a trio of short fins flared from the tail. The machine was an Atomic Age vision of the glamorous techno-future, minimalist and sleek. At the same time, it looked like something built from instructions in the back of Boys' Life.

Knievel's fantasy had been to conquer the Snake on what amounted to a motor-cycle with wings, but Bob Truax—whose hobby of building steam engines for drag racers had been brought to Knievel's attention—convinced him the design was not feasible. He didn't need a rocket bike, but rather a rocket ship. "The way my dad sold that to Knievel," Scott Truax told me, "is he said, 'You are going to be like an astronaut.'" Knievel enlisted Bob to engineer the vehicle in the style of an independent (if exceptionally qualified) inventor.

Pleasing The Crowd
Big Ed Beckley jumps Harleys for fans in Texas. "In the daredevil business," he says, "most of the crowd wants you to make it, but they also want to be there just in case you don't."
Photograph by Dmitri Alexander
In the warehouse, Scott Truax showed off his father's design. "Rather than build something custom, my dad would almost always modify something that could do the job," he said. Similarly, Scott's team, led by Bob Truax's longtime collaborator Craig Adams, used portions of a fuel tank from a Grumman Albatross seaplane to create the Skycycle's front fuselage; repurposed a B-50's air tank for the rear section; and salvaged the tail fins from a helicopter. The vehicle was Steampunk, quite literally—rather than burn hydrogen-oxygen fuel, the engine tapped the raw power of steam, super-heated to 467°F.

I watched as Adams and Scott Truax slid a heavy circular assembly into the rear of the Skycycle. The newly machined part was designed to hold the tail fins securely in place, but the men now saw that the bolt holes weren't aligned correctly. That was a minor problem, Adams said, something that could be repaired in a couple of hours. The life-or-death issue they needed to resolve was the infamously flawed parachute design. Adams explained that when steam blasted from the original Skycycle's engine back in 1974, it created low-pressure "base drag" that sucked the lid off of the parachute canister, which was mounted right next to the exhaust nozzle. So Adams designed a new parachute canister with a lid that had ¹/10 the surface area. The chute would also be packed in much more tightly and the lid more robustly secured.

Beyond that and a few other safety modifications, such as a stronger nose assembly, the team was replicating the original design down to every last, unlikely detail. "When my dad was rummaging around for a piece of metal to use as the diaphragm to cap the engine and hold in the steam, he decided to go with a couple of dog-food can lids," Truax said. He and Adams did the same. At the end of the countdown, a metal plate would punch through the lids, steam would gush out, and Braun would be blasted into the great Idaho beyond.

***

"This is your typical redneck stock car track right here," Big Ed was saying. "Old beat-up guard rail, grandstands that need paint, and speakers that are junk." He smiled, as if there were no place in the world that he would rather be. We were in Abilene, Texas, where Beckley and several assistants were gearing up for a stunt that would take place midway through the evening's slate of dirt track races: jumping over eight trucks on his custom Harley Sportster.

If the event was any preview for how Beckley might approach the Snake River, the proceedings didn't inspire confidence. The Sportster's carburetor was leaking gas. A crew member had forgotten the instructions to the radar speed gun, so Beckley couldn't verify the accuracy of his speedo-meter (precise velocity being essential to precise soaring). Beckley had recently started using a safety ramp—a flat extension of the landing ramp, topped with plywood and supported by two-by-fours, that would cover the final two trucks in the line in case he pulled up short. Travis Smith, his mechanic, wasn't reassured. "You better not land on that safety ramp," he said.

"Why not?" Beckley replied.

"I'm scared to walk on that ramp," Smith said. "I could blow it over." Reluctantly agreeing, Beckley sent his assistants on a Home Depot run to buy additional two-by-fours.

Beckley had jumped the Sportster for a crowd only once before—on March 7, 2014, at a monster truck show in New Mexico. Realizing he didn't have enough room in the small arena to get the bike up to speed, he poured cola syrup on the concrete leading up to the jump. The idea was to make the ground tacky, so that his tires would grip better and propel him faster, but the surface just wound up being slippery. Beckley didn't clear the cars. Instead, nearly 800 pounds of man and machine smacked onto a shoddily constructed safety ramp, which collapsed and sent Beckley flying. He broke six ribs, collapsed a lung, tore his kidney, and got a concussion; his brain wouldn't stop bleeding. While being rushed to the ER by helicopter, "I actually died twice," Beckley says. "They had to use those jump-start cables to fire me back up."

The Race To Claim Knievel's Crown

The accident and four-week hospitalization that followed should have sapped even a Knievel-size reserve of courage. But just three days after his release, Big Ed flew to Twin Falls for a round of meetings about the Snake River project. And in the following weeks, he enlisted a talented builder to make him a rocket bike: Paul Stender, who was famous for absurd, jet-powered vehicles, including a flame-spewing outhouse and a yellow school bus that did 367 mph.

Beckley's vision for his launch vehicle is akin to Knievel's original one; he wants a true rocket bike. "I will not be inside of a rocket ship," Beckley says. "That will be for some other fool who has no balls." (This from a man who once sailed over the whirling blades of two helicopters—Beckley's "Human Veg-O-Matic" stunt from the 1980s.) Stender's design shows Beckley leaning far forward on a motor-cycle with a nose cone and stabilizers up front, tail fins, and a hydrogen peroxide–fueled rocket engine protruding from the rear. In preparation for launch, Big Ed has even been exercising and dieting, and says that he is down to a relatively svelte 260 pounds.

Rivals like Scott Truax and the skydiver Smith are skeptical of Beckley's plan. Rather than launching in a rocket from a tower, Beckley says he will freely ride his motorcycle down a steep, 565-foot ramp—basically an oversize Olympic ski jump—trigger the rocket engine, and blast off. And while Truax's crew has been working for more than a year, using a simple and (mostly) proven design, Beckley is attempting something new and complex. When I passed on this criticism, Beckley fired back: "They can talk smack all they want to, but our design is just as proven as theirs, only more, because ours didn't end up in the bottom of the river." But as of midsummer, he and Stender had not yet started building the bike. "My best guess is he's going to fail," Smith says. "He is never going to make it to the launch ramp."

At the racetrack in Abilene, the safety platform had been shored up, and the trucks were in place. Stepping onto the track, I stood at the foot of the launch ramp and noticed that it didn't seem to be lined up with the landing ramp, 80 feet away. I asked one of the crew to check it out, and he summoned Beckley. Big Ed took one look, said, "I agree with you," and shoved the tip of the ramp a few feet to the left.

Minutes later Beckley was airborne in the night sky, a roaring Harley beneath him and a cheering grandstand full of people to the side. The jump looked flawless, but it wasn't. Just like in New Mexico, Beckley landed short, on the safety platform—which fortunately held up this time—and only inches from one edge. "I'm so glad this is over," he said, basking in applause. "We almost made the 10 o'clock news there."

***

Back in Idaho, during my summer visit, Truax took me offroading in the Supervan. The tall vehicle swayed from side to side as the tires dipped into ruts. Truax steered across a grassy plain, occupying the vehicle's lone seat, while I simply tried to keep from sliding out of the open side door. After a few minutes he parked in what looked like an arbitrary spot, but the location was carefully chosen—50 feet farther and we would have driven off of a cliff.

This was his new launch site. After spending a month poring over satellite imagery, scouting locations, and talking to people around town, he was able to lease private land on both sides of the Snake for the relative bargain price of $50,000. He regretted that the team would need to launch six miles upstream from the original 1974 site, but the essence of the endeavor would remain the same: blasting over the Snake in an oversize Knievel action toy.

Truax hopped out of the Supervan and shook hands with a local contractor, who unfurled plans for the launch tower on the hood of his truck. The two men, using the blueprints for reference, paced out distances and spray-painted the ground to mark where the tower's supports would stand. "In a few weeks, this is going to look totally different. We are going to have an 86-foot-tall launch ramp headed that way," Truax said, pointing across the canyon.

In the Big Ed camp, meanwhile, the project was not proceeding smoothly. Or at all. Back in May, the Fox Broadcasting Company had announced plans to televise both the Beckley and Truax attempts in a show the network billed as Jump of the Century. Since that time Beckley had been waiting for Fox to cut him a check—he'd requested $4 million—before he and Stender started building. He never got it. The network canceled the show in late July; as a Fox spokesperson tersely explained, "Due to production timelines and budget concerns, we have decided to not move forward with the Jump of the Century."

When I called Big Ed to commiserate,he said there was no longer any chance he would attempt the jump in 2014. But next year, watch out. "We are not done," Beckley said. "We will be doing this jump, whether Fox is our media partner or someone else." Smith, Daisher, and Hartman all confirmed they were eyeing possible attempts next year as well, especially if Truax failed. Until somebody actually conquered the canyon, the grand prize of daredevilry was still anyone's to claim.

Knievel also couldn't get a television network to broadcast his jump live. Right up to launch, the media criticized his scheme for being impractical, foolish, and possibly suicidal. It was all of the above. But the Snake was also the ultimate expression of the Knievel spirit, in which you do something in the most thrilling way possible, not the most rational. It would be a lark for NASA to launch someone over a river, but more momentous to see the inventor of a jet-powered outhouse do the same. It's exciting to watch lithe motorcycle acrobats do backflips in the X Games—but arguably more thrilling to witness an overweight 64-year-old soar over a row of trucks on a Harley. Being an athlete is not the same as being a daredevil. "Those guys who are doing it now are great," Beckley says. "What we do is jump over stuff that could kill you."

At Truax's launch site, after the measurements were through, he and I stood at the rim of the canyon. As we looked across the gorge to the tabletop farmlands where the Skycycle was supposed to land, he riffed about his top two idols. Bob Truax wasn't a heart-on-his-sleeve guy, Scott said; "he never told me he loved me." But he felt lucky to have him as a father and was honored to be furthering his legacy. "I can't help but think he would be really proud."

As for Knievel, Truax said he admired his attitude as much as his riding. Knievel was far from perfect. As biographer Montville and others have noted, he was a thief, a womanizer, and by almost every account, a quantum-grade jerk. But there was a reason he had inspired so many people, from kids on dirt bikes to professional stuntmen. "Knievel just went out there and did it, and sometimes he crashed," Truax said. "And when he crashed, he got up. And I think that is kind of the American spirit."

This article originally appeared in the October 2014 issue of Popular Science.

The Last Gladiator
Evel Knievel didn't undersell his 1974 feat. "When I make that jump," he said. "I'll be competing against the toughest opponent of all -- and that's death."
Sports Illustrated/Getty Images

A Drive Through History

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May 1932
The '30s saw the construction of the Golden Gate Bridge and the Hoover Dam. Futuristic car concepts were designed to fit the worlds of tomorrow.
Popular Science has been documenting the love affair between Americans and their cars since the first Model T rolled out of the factory in 1908. Like any relationship, it has changed over time, and that's reflected in the magazine's coverage.

This article originally appeared in the October 2014 issue of Popular Science.

Snake Robots And A Quadcopter Fuse Together In This Chimera Drone

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The Hybrid Exploration Robot for Air and Land Deployment.
Mod Lab/University of Pennsylvania

Rescue robots are better when they travel in packs. Snake bots, slithering like their reptilian namesakes, are great at crawling through narrow spaces, but they're fairly slow. Quadcopter drones can quickly fly over and around obstacles, but once on the ground they can’t too much besides take off again. A new chimera-like creation, from the Modular Robotics Lab at the University of Pennsylvania, combines two snakebots and one quadcopter into a sort of drone superorganism, bringing rescue robots together for difficult situations.

Together, this motley team of robots is known by their superhero-esque moniker H.E.R.A.L.D., which stands for Hybrid Exploration Robot for Air and Land Deployment. The drone is explicitly designed as an alternative to stronger, heavier robots that use force to power over rubble. A lighter approach leaves the rubble in place, and means rescue bots can find people where they are while not making the situation worse.

Roboticist Stella Latscha led the team of researchers that presented the drone last week at the 2014 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems. Right now, the robot is just a demonstration, but in the future hybrid robot teams like this one could venture into ruined buildings to save trapped humans.

Watch it fly in a lab below:

[Science News]

Editing The Genes Of Superbugs To Turn Off Antibiotic Resistance

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Resistant Tuberculosis

Over the past decade, deadly bacteria such as MRSA, C. difficile, and even tuberculosis have developed numerous mechanisms to keep themselves alive at all cost – mostly against antibiotics. Some bacteria have the ability to pump invading antibiotics out of their cells. Others can produce an enzyme called NDM-1, which “chews up” these drugs, essentially  rendering them ineffective.

These new special powers all lie in the bacteria’s genes, which have evolved over generations to make these organisms nearly indestructible. So what’s the best way to make them destructible again? Perhaps we need to change the genes.

That’s just what a group of MIT researchers have done in a new study published in the journal Nature Biotechnology. Led by Timothy Lu, the team developed their own gene-editing system, capable of turning off certain bacterial genes that spur antibiotic resistance. And they did it by harnessing the power of the bacteria’s own immune system.

The key is a system known as CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats), a set of proteins that bacteria used to defend themselves against viruses. Typically, bacteria utilize the CRISPR arrangement to render genes in attacking viruses ineffective.

“CRISPR has a certain protein in it called Cas9 that acts like a scissor,” Lu, associate professor of biological engineering, electrical engineering, and computer science, tells Popular Science. “It recognizes specific sequences of DNA and cuts it. So what we can do is take that genome-editing tool and target anything we want. By changing the RNA address, we can direct the scissor.”

"The benefit of this technology is you can reprogram the antimicrobial to keep up with evolution."

DNA scissors have been eyed before for tackling HIV, Alzheimer's, and even brain cancer, but the MIT researchers are the first to use them to combat antibiotic resistance. Specifically, Lu and his team directed the CRISPR system to attack bacterial genes that encode NDM-1, which “has become a really big problem in certain types of bacteria over the years,” according to Lu. They also guided the CRISPR to attack bacterial genes that make the microorganism capable of causing disease in the first place. By “cutting” those genes, the bacteria transforms from deadly to harmless.

Once these genome-editing techniques were mastered, the researchers then had to figure out ways to deliver the modified CRISPRs to the bacteria. But rather than have just one method, they came up with two. The first technique involved using bacterial viruses known as phages to transport the goods. “Naturally, phages inject their own DNA into bacteria and that allows them to replicate,” says Lu. “We take those same mechanisms, but instead of injecting DNA that codes for a virus, we have it inject the CRISPR system.”

With their second delivery method, they leveraged the bacteria against one another. Bacteria will often pass genes to one another, so over time, they will receive the antibiotic-resistant genes from their neighbors. With this in mind, the researchers turned the bacteria into traitors, engineering them to carry CRISPR genes on their plasmids. This caused the modified bacteria to pass the gene-editing tools on to other harmful bacteria.

MRSA
This 2005 colorized scanning electron micrograph (SEM) depicts numerous clumps of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteria.
Lu notes that the bacteria delivery method “may not be best for acute infection, since it takes time to work.” But he says it opens up an interesting concept for the future. “Instead of taking an antibiotic when you’re sick, you might take these probiotics when you’re healthy, removing bad bacteria before you get ill.”

Meanwhile, the phage-delivery method could be utilized more as a therapeutic tool. And, depending on how the CRISPR system is designed, it can work in one of two ways: either to strengthen antibiotics or to kill the bacteria altogether. By removing the bacteria’s genes that make them antibiotic-resistant, CRISPR can boost the effectiveness of existing drugs. But if CRISPR is designed to remove the bacteria’s genes that make them deadly in the first place, the system can effectively destroy the infection.

So far, Lu and his team have tested their gene-editing tools and delivery in test tubes in the lab, successfully killing more than 99 percent of bacteria with the NDM-1 encoding-gene. They also delivered CRISPR to a group of waxworm larvae that had been infected with E. coli, resulting in increased survival of the worms. They hope to test their technology on mice soon before moving on to human clinical trials.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at least 2 million people become infected with antibiotic-resistant bacteria each year in the United States, resulting in at least 23,000 deaths. As antibiotic resistance becomes an even greater concern, Lu hopes their technique will provide a suitable alternative, as well as a way of outsmarting bacteria in the future.

“The benefit of this technology is you can reprogram the antimicrobial to keep up with evolution,” Lu says. “Bacteria will always find some way of beating us, but when a new gene comes out that’s bad, we can go and design a new version of the system that can counter that.”

Video: Paralyzed Rats Walk Again, Now Farther Than Ever

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Paralyzed Rat From A 2012 Study.
Courtine Lab/Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne

Like a severed telephone line (from back in the days when phones had wires), a spinal cord injury can cut off communication between the brain and the rest of the body -- leaving a victim unable to move some or all of his or her limbs. It's one of the leading causes of paralysis in the United States, and the debilitating effects often can be permanent. 

But over the past few years, scientists have begun to overcome some kinds of paralysis using epidural electrical stimulation, or EES for short. With this technique, researchers implant two electrode arrays onto the spine: one above the injury, and one below. Then the top array reads the electrical commands from the brain and beams them to the lower array. The lower array then relays the message to the nerves that control the limbs. Essentially, the EES is a bridge that bypasses the spinal cord injury. The technology has already given paralyzed rats -- and even people -- the ability to walk again.

The trouble with current EES technology is that the arrays send out an electrical signal that never varies unless it's manually adjusted. This lack of variation appears to cause the nerves to fatigue after a while. Eventually they just stop firing, and the person stops walking once again. Now scientists from the École Polytechnique Fédérale in Lausanne, Switzerland, have found a way to vary the EES signal so that patients -- or in this case, rats -- can walk longer and with greater control of their steps.

In the experiment, the rats' spinal cords were completely severed, causing total paralysis of the hindlimbs. Yet the researchers got the rodents walking again with the help of EES and some training sessions (during which rats' upper bodies are supported by a cute little vest). Then, they monitored the walking patterns of rats whose EES used the old, unvaried signal, and compared them to rats whose EES signals varied in their frequency, amplitude, and pulse duration on every step. And it appears that the new algorithm has promise.

As the signal's frequency was dialed up from 20 to 90 Hertz, the rats took larger steps, ranging from 2.9 to 6.8 centimeters in height. Modulating the frequency helped the rats to walk longer: Rats whose EES continually pumped out 40 Hz signals eventually collapsed when their muscles stopped responding, whereas rats whose EES frequency varied were able to walk 1,000 steps to the end of the test -- almost double the distance of the 40 Hz rats, on average. The modulated signal may be more effective, because it mimics the diverse ways that neurons fire naturally.

The new turning algorithm also helped the rats to overcome more complicated obstacles, in the form of rodent-sized staircases whose steps ranged from 1.3 to 3.5 centimeters. Because the frequency modulation helped the rats to take larger steps, those rats had a much easier time walking up the staircases. They climbed the staircases successfully in 99 out of 100 attempts, whereas the rats who used the old technology "tumbled against and failed to pass the lower staircase." (Aww.)

According to the researchers, the modulated signal may be more effective, because it mimics the diverse ways that neurons fire naturally. Additionally, the new controller continuously tracks the motion of the legs, automatically adjusting the trajectory of each step based on that feedback. In this experiment, that tracking was done with cameras surrounding the rodent. If/when the system becomes adapted for humans, the researchers think wearable sensors may be able to take the place of the camera setup.

In a nutshell, the new algorithms make it easier to control the body's movements to a finer degree, in an adaptable way -- and in real time. 

Up next, the lab will be testing out the new signaling algorithm in human patients beginning as early as next summer.

Unleashing An Epidemic To Kill The Tumbleweeds

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photo of a dry, brown tumbleweed in an empty street
Tumbling Alone

Dana Berner wants to start an epidemic among tumbleweeds. Berner is a pathologist with the U.S. Agricultural Research Service who studies the diseases that afflict plants. One of his projects has been a search for something that's able to infect and kill the iconic, spiny, rolling weed of the American West.

After about a decade of research—plus more work, done by predecessors—he thinks he's got an answer: Two fungi species that hail from the Eurasian steppes to which tumbleweed is native. He and his colleagues have submitted applications to release these exotic fungi on willing U.S. farmers' lands. Now they're just waiting for an answer.

"I'm very optimistic on its ability to control tumbleweed. We just need to get it released," Berner tells Popular Science. "We have lots of evidence on it that it's safe and effective."

"It eliminated tumbleweed in fields, within one to two years. Gone."

What's Berner's problem with this quirky Western icon? As American as they may seem, tumbleweeds aren't native to the U.S. They were introduced here, accidentally, in a shipment of flaxseeds, in the 1870s. Without the predators and diseases that normally munch at them in places like Russia and Hungary, they can grow in incredible numbers.

Tumbleweeds can take over farmland, crowding out crops or forage that cattle are able to eat. (Cattle don't eat tumbleweed.) They can pile up against houses, creating a fire hazard. ("I had a call from another fellow in California, just recently, who's just terrified of the fire risk," Berner says.) In 1989, a North Dakotan town of 4,000 spent $8,500 to dig itself out from a pileup that blocked streets and houses; similar scenarios have happened this year across the west. That's not to say tumbleweeds aren't beloved by some… but others could do with fewer of them. Yet farmers and ranchers don't often want to plunk down the money to kill them off with chemical herbicides. The type of land tumbleweeds grow on tends not to be very valuable, agriculturally. So they persist, with each tumbling ball scattering up to a quarter million seeds as it rolls.

photo of a large, round, green tumbleweed bush
A Green, Growing Tumbleweed
Photo courtesy of Forest & Kim Starr

The Agricultural Research Service got a first glimpse of a possible solution in the 1990s. At the time, plant pathologists in Hungary noticed a fungus infecting and killing local tumbleweeds. Knowing the Americans would be interested, they mailed a sample to the Agricultural Research Service's Foreign Disease-Weed Science Research Unit in Fort Detrick, Maryland.

Since then, Berner and his colleagues has been studying that fungus, Colletotrichum salsolae, alongside another fungus called Uromyces salsolae. They've been checking what the fungi kill and don't kill. The latest studies included field tests of C. salsolae in Greece and Russia, where C. salsolae already grows. Berner describes the results of a study they performed by renting a patch of land from a Greek farmer with a tumbleweed problem. "It eliminated tumbleweed in fields, within one to two years. Gone."

The fungi work against the tumbleweeds when they are saplings, so they don't have the chance to grow into large bushes, which would later dry out, snap off their roots, and roll around while dispersing their seeds.

photo of a woody stem covered in a patchy black coloring
Stem of a Tumbleweed Infected with C. Salsolae Fungus
Photo by Dana Berner

The safety tests included inoculating plants of species related to the Salsola tragus tumbleweed that C. salsolae and U. salsolae target. The plant researchers wanted to make sure that if released, the fungi wouldn't kill native plants. Those tests were performed in a biosafety level 3 greenhouse, a precaution that was meant to protect not the human researchers, who aren't susceptible to the diseases studied in the greenhouse, but all of the plants outside of it. Scientists have to shower before leaving the greenhouse.

Not every plant species gets a greenhouse test, however. Some species are difficult to find or cultivate. So Berner and his colleagues ran a mathematical model on all of their species that estimates the extent to which a species is susceptible to certain pathogens, based on its genetics. The model is a widely used one for checking what species a "biological control agent"—a living thing meant to kill weeds or pests—will affect.

The team checked 89 species' vulnerability to C. salsolae, plus 64 species' vulnerability to U. salsolae. Only a few species were vulnerable to infection at all. Those that were didn't seem to suffer in overall health from the infection. One helpful fact: Plant diseases tend to infect closely related species and there are no plants native to the U.S. that share tumbleweeds' genus, Salsola.

Now it's a question of waiting, which depends in part on whether the approval committee is convinced by Berner and his coworkers' safety tests. The team submitted one application, for U. salsolae, in 2009. They haven't yet received an answer. They submitted their application for C. salsolae this year.

Should the approval go through, spreading the fungi will be cheap and easy. Scientists infect otherwise sterilized rice with the fungi, then dump a half-kilogram pile of the rice every 5,000 meters in the fields of those who want it. Rain and tumbleweeds' tumbling will do the rest.

"It will eventually spread," Berner says. "Ultimately, it's going to spread as far as tumbleweed spread."


Throwback Thursday: The Rise Of Digital Photo Sharing, Computer Viruses, And The Laptop

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September 1989 Cover
Popular Science

On this Throwback Thursday, we go back 25 years to the Popular Science of September 1989.

The Snapchat Of The VHS Era?

A technology covered in our magazine may have eerily foretold the coming of the social media revolution. Called "Videofax," it brought together videotape, computer, and fax technologies to create an early photo sharing service. And its description sounds oddly familiar:

"Picture this: Use your video camera to photograph a child, a vacation scene, secret documents—whatever. Now plug the camera into your computer and see a single frame displayed on the screen. Then whisk that image instantly over a telephone line to any fax machine in the world, so that a friend, grandparent, or master spy gets the image, pronto."

"Dream stuff? No More." If only we knew how far that dream would take us.

Computer Viruses Were Pretty Scary

Already security firms like McAffee were on the job of keeping computer viruses out of delicate systems. "Like a biological virus that takes over a living cell, a computer virus contains a set of coded instructions that enable it to invade a host, replicate, and infect new hosts," one article reads.

Just how big a danger viruses, trojans, and worms posed was an open question. After all, not that many computers were infected yet, and getting infected often involved physically loading a bad disc into your machine. Still, the article contains the seed of what was to come. "Less than a year ago," we noted, "a programmer unleashed a massive attack on Internet [sic], a nationwide network linking military, academic, and industrial research facilities."

The article closes with this from a leading anti-virus programmer named Ross M. Greenberg:

Greenberg, who offers a reward to anyone who turns in a virus writer, has appended an appeal, addressed to 'slimebuckets' like The Plague to his virus-protection program: 'You have the talent to do something good with your life. What you're doing is hurting the industry and hurting the community, which would welcome someone with your talents with open arms. And the satisfaction of helping far surpasses the satisfaction you must get from hurting innocent people. So just stop.

Of course, we all know how that worked out.

Global Warming Was Getting Scary Too

This explainer on global warming shows just how long climate scientists have been concerned about the impact of climate change on the environment. Our reporter tells the story of a man killed for protesting deforestation in the Amazon. "A death in Amazonia is inextricably entwined with the fate of the planet. Such connections are of paramount importance in understanding what contributed to the greenhouse effect and why making definitive predictions about its consequences is so difficult."

They didn't have the data and real-world effects we do today, but scientists were headed in the right direction and sounding the alarm:

The truth is that while many uncertainties remain—especially over regional effects—and specific projections continue to stir controversy among research institutions, the web of scientific evidence draws ever tighter. It comes from 160,000-year-old Antarctic ice, from satellites peering down at Earth's atmosphere, from monitoring stations on volcanic peaks, and from the exhalations of cattle. And it points ever more persuasively in one deriection: Earth is warming up at a rate not witnessed for eons.

The spure is the intervention of a rapidly expanding human population impinging on a global system in a mesh of complex processes, feedback loop within loop.

We might not have made as much progress by now as we had hoped in 1989 (August was the warmest month since record keeping began) but this Climate Week, there's hope once again for a change.

A 1989 Graphic Explaining The Greenhouse Effect
Popular Science

The Portable Computer Got More Portable

Machines that looked a bit like laptops were just coming on the market, and we were excited. "Move over, luggables—you're no longer as transportable as you once were. Now designers have cut the weight of new portable computers in half—down to five pounds and less—but without eliminating features you need for heavyweight computing." The proto-laptops had some drawbacks (some lacked essential components like disc drives), but a 50 percent cut in weight is nothing to sneeze at. That trend of miniturization continues today with the smartphone in your pocket.

The Astounding Shrinking Computer Of 1989
Popular Science

You can read the complete September 1989 issue here.

Swarms Of Mouse-Sized Robots Scurry To Maintain The Nation's Bridges

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TinyTerps
courtesy UMD Micro Robotics Lab
Ask Sarah Bergbreiter, a professor of mechanical engineering and head of the University of Maryland’s Micro Robotics Laboratory, about the connection between miniature robots and bridges, and she’s likely to talk about watching people climb the Harbour Bridge in Sydney, Australia.

“It’s insane. The rivets—they’re not flat. It’s hard to see anything be able to move around these understructures of bridges,” she says.

But along with fellow UMD professors Nuno Martins and Richard La, that’s exactly what Bergbreiter will have to do. They’re not coming up with a better harness or weird contraption to make it easier for people to scale bridges, however. Instead, they’re at the beginning of a three-year project, bolstered by an $850,000 grant from the National Science Foundation, to design, build, and deploy a swarm of miniature robots, each no more than several centimeters long, that will aid in bridge inspection by climbing on them, traversing the tricky terrain of rivets and bolts on their undersides, and working together with minimal input from a human controller to store and relay images and measurements related to the strength and stability of the bridges they’re crawling over.

“The vision is you could have a whole bunch of these guys running around a bridge,” says Bergbreiter. “I don’t think that’ll happen in three years, but I think we’ll be at the point where we can make a decision how far this can be commercialized.”

The average age of the American bridge is 42 years old—as good an age as any for regular check-ups. Inspecting any one of the approximately 605,000 bridges in the U.S. today is a tedious, hours-long task usually undertaken by a team of experts. Releasing 50 to 100 bug-sized robots in tandem with human teams would cut down on the amount of time needed to inspect a bridge and prevent the need to shut down a bridge to pedestrian and vehicle traffic. The idea is that these robots, once given a certain command, would be autonomous, moving around a bridge on their own and organizing together to examine various surfaces and take measurements. Designing such a robot would be a feat of ingenuity in dynamic movement as well as adhesion, and both are areas Bergbreiter has dug into since helping establish UMD’s Micro Robotics Lab in 2008.

“The key is being able to stick and crawl over bridge surfaces, whether they’re concrete or steel or painted steel,” she says. Bergbreiter says the adhesion technologies being worked on in the lab draw inspiration from the Spiderman movies as well as Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible. Picture a robot using electroadhesion to latch onto a bridge, or one the size of an earwig using little hairs, or “gecko adhesion,” to remain affixed to a rivet. “The key there is being able to turn it off and on,” says Bergbreiter. Add a tail or a flexible backbone, and you have a robot that will stick to a bridge and move easily from horizontal surfaces to vertical ones, and over structures like rivets that are far from flat. Bergbreiter says small projects using new adhesion tech and different mechanisms for movement have already been demonstrated in UMD’s Micro Robotics Lab.

As for relaying information useful for bridge inspections, the professors might be pulling from the Micro Robotics Lab’s TinyTerps, quarter-sized robots named after UMD’s mascot, the terrapin (terp for short), that can be thought of as tiny Arduino boards. “They effectively have a radio microcontroller, and you can plug different sensors on and off of it,” says Bergbreiter.

It’s soon to tell what these bridge-inspecting, micro-scale robots will look like or how, exactly, they will work. But Bergbreiter says that’s part of the fun of this new project.

“We’ve been working on big robots since the late ’50s and ’60s, and there’s a lot of amazing things that people have done in that area,” she says. But, she adds wryly, “There’s plenty of room at the bottom.”

Millions Might Contract Ebola By January

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Laboratory Examination Of Ebola
© Luchschen / Dreamstime.com

Last June, the Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone built a temporary ward in anticipation of an influx of Ebola patients. The makeshift building was covered with thin, tin metal sheets, haphazardly held to the walls by wire twist-ties. Robert Garry says that when the structure fell, it seemed inevitable.

But finding physical space for patients wasn’t the only problem at the hospital. Even after the ward was rebuilt, Garry and his staff have been sorely overworked since, and many have contracted the disease. Another doctor at the Kenema Hospital, Sheik Humarr Khan, was often left as the only person caring for 80 people. But he told his sister: “If I refuse to treat them, who would treat me?”

Western Africa is struggling to prevent collapse during the worst Ebola outbreak ever. This week the CDC released a study predicting that by January of 2015, 1.4 million people may have contracted the virus. With new studies suggesting that the virus's mortality rate may be close to 70 percent, that means in the next six months, 980,000 more people might die from the disease. Thomas Gift, one of the people who worked on the CDC report, explained that their model was based on daily case counts from the current outbreak, as well as estimates of previous ones.

To develop these types of predictive models, epidemiologists break individuals up into four groups: people who are at risk, people who are infected but not contagious, people who are infected and contagious, and people who have recovered. Ultimately, researchers try to determine how those groups interact with each other and predict movements between groups. These movements comprise what is known as the “effective reproductive rate,” or the number of people each infected person will give the disease to. This number is called R. When R is less than 1, the outbreak is declining, and if it’s more than 1, the disease is spreading.

Reports vs. Predicitions
Graphs show how model predictions and actual case reports match up. Click here to see this image larger.
CDC

Gift says the parameters in the CDC study were set to minimize the differences between the model and what is being reported on the ground in Sierra Leone and Liberia. But he says, “Like all models, they are simplifications of reality.” Plus, any model is only as good as the data that is fed into it, and it's possible that as many as 75 percent of all Ebola cases are going unreported.

For this reason, the model uses a correction factor to account for underreporting. The CDC study decided that factor should be based on the number of beds in use, since counting physical objects is somewhat more reliable than depending on case reporting. So researchers compared the number of patients in beds predicted by the model on August 28th to the number of actual patients in beds. But the authors only had access to the bed counts in Liberia, not Sierra Leone, so it’s still just an estimate.

CDC scientists aren't the only ones trying to develop models of Ebola transmission. Christian Althaus, an epidemiologist at the University of Bern, has also developed an estimate of the outbreak. He says that the CDC’s estimate of 1.4 million is based on an assumption that the real number of cases is 2.5 times higher than reported. However, Althaus says that way before Ebola patients number in the millions, "we will see a dramatic change in behavior and probably a collapse of the countries. That might limit the spread to some extent, but it will be very important to maintain social order.”

He says it’s hard to quantify the impact of international aid, but Caitlin Rivers, a PhD student of computational epidemiology at Virigina Tech, says her modeling results suggest that contact tracing and improving infection control can help but not halt the progress of the epidemic. “But there's no question it needs to be a top priority for the global public health community,” Rivers says.

Despite the uncertainty involved in developing these models -- including the chronic underreporting, which has made solid data about the outbreak difficult to come by -- even conservative estimates put the number of people infected by Ebola in the tens of thousands by the end of the year.

As of September 24th, WHO has reported 6,263 cases of infection, with 2,917 deaths. “The number of lives already lost is staggering, and grows every day,” Rivers says.

Facebook Says Wi-Fi Drones Will Be Jumbo Jet-Sized

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Screenshot, Ascenta Drone
Internet.org

If a new Facebook plan is successful, the easiest way to access the cloud may be ... in the clouds. Facebook wants to spread Wi-Fi Internet to unconnected parts of the world with drones, and at a summit in New York earlier this week, the company revealed those drones will be the size of jumbo jets.

In March of 2014, Facebook acquired drone maker Ascenta, whose solar-powered drones could potentially remain airborne at 65,000 feet for months or years at a time. (Ascenta's web page has disappeared since the acquisition, leaving only a goodbye notice in Facebook-blue.) To make this project fly, Facebook plans on testing one of the drones over American skies by 2015, hoping to have the project off the ground in three to five years.

While bringing Internet connectivity to unconnected parts of the world should be a good enough move for public relations, Facebook also joined the ongoing war against calling unmanned aircraft drones:

First, don't call them "drones," Yael Maguire, engineering director of Facebook’s Connectivity Lab, said Monday at the Social Good Summit in New York City. Instead he refers to them as "planes," seeing as they will be "roughly the size" of airplanes "like a 747," although much, much lighter.

Whatever its name, the craft without people on board will let people access the web from the heavens. Internet.org, a collaboration between social media giant Facebook and telecom behemoths Nokia and Qualcomm, created a short, optimistic video about these sky Internet robots. Watch it below:

Spoiler Alert: Statistician Predicts Future Chapters Of 'Game Of Thrones' Novels

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Game Of Thrones Characters
Home Box Office

Desperate for details as you wait for the next installment in Game of Thrones? You're in luck. In what may be the first mathematics paper to include a spoiler alert, a New Zealand statistician has come up with a model to predict what's coming up in the final two (or threeSong Of Ice And Fire novels.

George R.R. Martin's hugely popular series is broken up into chapters told from the perspective of different characters. Richard Vale, a statistician at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, used a method called Bayesian prediction to figure out how many chapters each character is likely to get in the next two books in the series—and how likely they are to die.

Predictions.
How many chapters will each character get in 'Winds of Winter'? The height of the bar over each number represents the probability of a character getting that number of chapters. If the bar reaches the '0.5' mark, the chance is 50 percent. If it reaches '1' the model is certain of that number of chapters.
Richard Vale

Bayesian prediction uses knowledge about the past to predict the future. For example, if a boy king started headlining more and more chapters in each novel, you might reasonably expect him to dominate even more in the coming books. If a towering knight had many chapters in the first three books, but her presence petered off in the fourth and fifth, you would not expect her to show up quite as much in the future. And of course, if a character died (or might die in a future novel), his or her odds of returning are quite low. This same method of making mathematical guesses helps your Roomba navigate your living room, and helps cognitive scientists understand human choice.

Vale says likelihood of a character getting at least one chapter in the coming books roughly represents the likelihood that the character is still alive (for now). Of course, the model doesn't account for Martin's ruthlessness. Eddard Stark had lots of chapters in the first book, but readers and viewers know how that turned out...

The model is has other imperfections. Most importantly, it doesn't take the plot of past books into account, only their chapter heads. It also doesn't consider that chapter count is a bit of a zero-sum game. That is, that if one character shows up often the others might get crowded out. It also ignores the likelihood that new characters will be introduced.

Still, we're glad that we can reasonably expect to read more of Jon Snow and Daenerys, and less of Sir Davos. (Davos is a good guy, but let's face it, his undying loyalty is annoying.)

Will Vale follow up with more predictions for the coming books? "We could continue to make predictions in the hope of getting one right," he wrote, "but there is no merit in this. We hope that it will be possible to review the model's performance following the publication of [book] six."

Harvard Wants To Help You Make Your Own Squishy Robot

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Ever sit alone in your room and think to yourself, “If only I had a soft robot to call my own.” All right, so that scenario is pretty unlikely, but for those who might have wondered how to create a squishy automaton, Harvard has the blueprints you’ll need.

In collaboration with Trinity College Dublin, Harvard University has created what they’re calling the Soft Robotics Toolkit, an online resource for the budding soft robot-maker. The toolkit gives individuals the “intellectual raw materials” they’ll need for creating and building robots from flexible substances.

The site has everything from tips on how to manufacture PneuNets Bending Actuators to case studies of soft robots built for specific purposes (such as a flexible glove that helps with grasping objects). But perhaps the main draw of the toolkit is its “open design” theme. Any user can take plans and details that have been posted from previous researchers and build upon them. They can then submit their own building efforts to the site for others to review.

“One thing we’ve seen in design courses is that students greatly benefit from access to more experienced peers—say, postdocs in a research lab—who can guide them through their work,” says Dónal Holland, a graduate student at Trinity College Dublin and one of the lead developers of the toolkit. “But scaling that up is difficult; you quickly run out of time and people. The toolkit is designed to capture the expertise and make it easily accessible to students.”

While the site practically holds your hand through the robot building process, it does leave out one vital element: the actual materials. You’ll have to buy those yourself in order to make the magic happen.

Otherwise, Harvard has seemingly built the go-to source for soft robotics, a field that has been gaining steam in the past few years. Soft robots take a cue from biological systems, harnessing the elastic mechanics of the body to move more fluidly. Researchers are starting to realize that robots made with pliable materials can perform a wider range of tasks and are much moreindestructible than their rigid counterparts.

Watch a video explaining the Soft Robotics Toolkit below:

Earth's Water Is Older Than The Sun

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A Star Is Born.
Some of Earth's water started out in an interstellar cloud (top left) that later got incorporated into the fledgling solar system.
Bill Saxton, NSF/AUI/NRAO

Since water is one of the vital ingredients for life on Earth, scientists want to know how it got here. One theory is that the water in our solar system was created in the chemical afterbirth of the Sun. If that were the case, it would suggest that water might only be common around certain stars that form in certain ways. But a new study, published today in Science, suggests that at least some of Earth’s water actually existed before the Sun was born -- and that it came from interstellar space. 

That’s certainly something to ponder the next time you drink a glass of water. But the discovery is also cool because it means water -- and maybe life -- may be ubiquitous throughout the galaxy. 

“If water in the early Solar System was primarily inherited as ice from interstellar space, then it is likely that similar ices, along with the prebiotic organic matter that they contain, are abundant in most or all protoplanetary disks around forming stars," study author Conel Alexander explained in a press release

The researchers concluded that a significant portion of Earth’s water came from interstellar space by looking at the relative abundance of hydrogen and deuterium. 

Deuterium is like hydrogen’s heavier brother. Both atoms have one proton in their nuclei, but deuterium contains an extra neutron, and it mostly forms under special conditions. In interstellar space, for example, water ice contains lots of deuterium, thanks to the freezing cold temperatures and ionizing radiation. Earthly water contains some deuterium, too, but in low quantities -- up to 30 times less than interstellar water.

Looking at a water sample’s ratio of hydrogen to deuterium can tell you about what conditions were like when the water formed. But until now, scientists weren’t sure whether Earth's deuterium came from space, or whether it was cooked up in the birth of the Sun. 

To find out, researchers used mathematical models to virtually recreate the young solar system's protoplanetary disk -- the cloud around the newborn Sun. They found that, based on the temperature and radiation conditions that would have existed back then, it wasn’t possible for the young solar system to create the ratios of hydrogen and deuterium that scientists observe in Earth’s oceans and on comets. Because of that, the researchers estimate that anywhere between 7 and 50 percent of Earth’s water had to have come from the interstellar medium in which the solar system was born.

And since other solar systems would have formed in the same interstellar medium, the findings suggest that the origins of water on Earth were not unique, and that the thirst-quenching, life-supporting substance may be common on exoplanets throughout the galaxy.


For Car Buyers, The Repo Man Is Just A Click Away

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A Dodge Magnum SE 2007
raul, via Wikimedia Commons

The problem with cars is that they move. For lenders interested in making sure loan repayments happen on schedule, moving collateral can present an investment risk. Recently, Popular Science reported on how, in an effort to mitigate this risk, repo men are scanning billions of license plates, putting drivers' privacy at risk in order to track down repossessed vehicles.

Now The New York Times reports that some lenders are protecting their investments by making sure the cars are never really out of their control. Thanks to GPS, phone apps, and ignition locking devices, lenders can remotely shut down the car of someone who's behind on payments. (Note: This is a totally normal and not eerily dystopian thing to do.)

These devices mean lenders always know where the car is, and can alert the owners if they are behind on payments. Often, the shutdown of a car leads to an immediate loan payment if the borrower is capable, though because these are typically subprime loans, that isn’t always the case. Payment locks have spawned a whole cyberpunk culture built around hacking the devices. In turn, lenders are installing fake devices to outwit hacking attempts. From the story:

Some drivers take matters into their own hands. Homemade videos on the Internet teach borrowers how to disable their devices, and Spireon has started selling lenders a fake GPS device called the Decoy, which is meant to trick borrowers into thinking they have removed the actual tracking system, which is installed along with the Decoy.

These devices are distinct from previous attempts in car hacking not in function but in initiation. Attempts to hack a car often involve gaining access to the car's controls, without the driver's knowledge. With lenders installing ignition-locking devices as a loan condition, the cars are instead sold effectively pre-hacked.

Read the full story at The New York Times.

Bad Space Weather May Have Caused Fatal Afghan Gun Battle

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Three American soldiers* may have died in Afghanistan’s battle of Takur Ghar because of disruptions caused by plasma bubbles – a form of space weather – according to a new study.

Space weather is normally associated with violent solar eruptions and geomagnetic storms. But the natural variability in the Earth’s ionosphere outside of these active events can still hinder a broad range of technologies.

Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) in the ionosphere are one such example, which cause daily disruptions on satellite communications and global satellite navigation systems, such as GPS, in the low-latitude regions across the globe.

The new study, published in Space Weather, has found that plasma bubbles could have been the cause for radio communications disruptions during Operation ANACONDA in Afghanistan in 2002.

The Battle of Takur Ghar

During this battle, a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) on board a MH-47 Chinook helicopter was deployed to aid a team of Navy SEALs that were pinned down on a ridge dividing the Upper and Lower Shahikot valley.

Repeated attempts to inform the QRF that the landing zone was “hot” were hindered by the failure of the satellite communications. Needless to say, the QRF never received this vital message, and this communication breakdown resulted in the Chinook crashing shortly after sunrise under heavy enemy fire, leading to three reported fatalities in the following firefight.

Poor performance of the UHF radio on board the helicopter and to radio blockage by the terrain was later blamed for the communications failure during this battle.

But re-analysis of this event by space scientists has provided strong evidence that ionospheric plasma bubbles observed over Afghanistan during the battle might have been to blame.

The adverse impact of plasma bubbles on satellite communications and navigation is very well known to space scientists. As such, understanding ionospheric plasma bubbles – why they form, when they form, and their effects on radio waves – has been a top priority in the field.

What are plasma bubbles?

Plasma bubbles, as the name suggests, are essentially bubbles of low density plasma that rise into high density plasma in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. The bubbles are the result of a plasma instability that is triggered shortly after sunset, known as the generalised Rayleigh-Taylor instability.

The situation is analogous to a heavy fluid sitting on top of a lighter fluid, which rises up into the heavy fluid, and the heavy fluid flows downwards under gravity.

The only difference with the ionosphere bubbles is that electric and magnetic fields govern their drift. These bubbles strongly affect any radio waves that propagate through them, causing random fluctuations in amplitude and phase, called scintillations.

From the perspective of a GPS receiver, the signals no longer resemble the normal GPS signals, and the receiver ultimately loses lock on the satellite. During severe events, a series of adjacent plasma bubbles can span from horizon to horizon, creating significant GPS positioning and timing errors.

What happens when satellite signals encounter a plasma bubble
When high frequency radio waves, such as those used for the GPS, travel through a disturbed layer of Earth’s electrically charged atmosphere, the ionosphere, they can be disrupted.

Similarly, radio receivers that use satellite communications need to be locked onto the satellite relaying the messages. Distortions in the signals can ultimately lead to communications blackouts, similar to that which occurred during Operation ANACONDA in 2002.

Predicting plasma bubbles

The prediction of these plasma bubble events is still the topic of intense research interest. The seasonal climatology in the occurrence of plasma bubbles is relatively well documented and understood following decades of observations.

We know that for most longitudes, the plasma bubbles occur almost every night during the equinox months, including during March when Operation ANACONDA took place and the current September equinox period.

The modelled amplitude scintillation level expected on UHF communications due to equatorial plasma bubbles.
Shown for September 22, 2014, at 9AM UTC (7PM AEST) close to sunset on Australia’s east coast.

But we are still challenged by understanding and accurately describing the short-term variability – day-by-day and hour-by-hour – in the plasma bubble characteristics.

Having said that, recent progress has been made in understanding why plasma bubbles occurred on one day, but not the next.

But there still exists many open research questions such as, the potential impact of tropospheric weather – such as hurricanes and tropical storms – on the occurrence of ionospheric plasma bubbles.

The 2013 Australian Defence White Paper states that:

Communications satellites […] are often the only available connection between ADF (Australian Defence Force) tactical areas of operations and the strategic networks used by the remainder of Defence.

Such a heavy reliance of Australia’s Defence on satellite communications is one of the primary reasons that we at RMIT’s SPACE Research Centre have teamed up with Australia’s Ionospheric Prediction Service and Boston College’s Institute for Scientific Research to join this international research effort.

Our ultimate goal is to develop a global ionospheric scintillation forecasting system that will not only be potentially be useful for defence, but also anyone using satellite positioning and timing signals.


* This article was edited on 25 September 2014 at the request of the author to replace the word “troops” with “soldiers” in the opening paragraph.The Conversation

Brett Carter receives funding from the Victorian Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program and the Australian Research Council.

John Retterer receives funding from the US Air Force Research Laboratory.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

In Africa, Ebola Patients Need More Than Medicine

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Liberia's Island Clinic Ebola Treatment Unit
Morgana Wingard for USAID
The dusty hills around Lima sprout concrete at all angles. There are many words here for the gray delineation of poverty-struck areas: áreas tugurizadas (slum zones), the less formal tugurios (projects), solares (tenements), barriadas asistidas (assisted shanty towns).

The average shanty-town income is less than $150 a month, which makes it a difficult place to conduct public health campaigns. In the 1990s, Dr. Jim Yong Kim, now the president of the World Bank, worked with the non-profit Partners in Health (PIH) to identify and then control an epidemic of multiple-drug-resistant tuberculosis in Lima. Kim called it “Ebola with wings.”

Paul Farmer is a physician known for revolutionizing medical care in the developing world, and a co-founder of PIH. He wrote recently, “We learned then that community-based care”—shorthand for a technique Farmer has developed that provides for patients’ basic needs, in addition to strictly medical treatment—”delivered in large part by community health workers, was not only safer than facility-based care, it was also more effective.” Now, after traveling to Liberia, Farmer says that West Africa needs similar support to cope with its recent Ebola epidemic.

Only 18 percent of Ebola patients in Liberia are currently being cared for in specialized treatment units. The rest are at home or in hiding, afraid of being dragged to overcrowded, understaffed hospitals. This greatly increases the risk of contagion, because patients can be highly infectious, and the people caring for them are usually not using proper protective equipment. According to the CDC, the number of patients reaching specialized treatment centers needs to increase to 70 percent for the outbreak to be controlled—a difficult task in countries struggling with social unrest, lack of education about the disease, poverty, and fear.  

In the absence of hospital-based treatment, it’s the people tending the sick, predominantly women, who are at the greatest risk. Farmer writes, “It’s no accident that up to 75 percent of those afflicted with Ebola are women.” If mothers and daughters are becoming default nurses, it’s imperative that they be equipped for the job.

“The idea that some lives matter less is the root of all that is wrong with the world.”

Farmer’s lifelong quest to provide “preferential care to the poor” has landed him on the unusual side of many arguments. He writes that what’s important in curing disease is “staff, stuff, space, and systems required to prevent, diagnose, and treat.” He’s now advocating a realistic approach that distributes protective equipment to the people who are exposed, whether or not they are affiliated with hospitals. “The countries fighting Ebola need to have the tools to treat patients closer to their homes and communities,” he says. Right now, patients who don’t want to go to hospitals or have difficulty reaching them can't be cared for without putting others at risk.

Farmer’s focus is on accomplishing medical objectives, even if the means to those objectives include distinctly non-medical care. If the patient needs money and food to get to the clinic, Farmer’s opinion is that those stages should be considered part of treatment too. “Community-based care does not mean ‘community-based no-care,’” Farmer told a panel at the Clinton Global Initiative meeting in New York this week.

In Lima, that meant a model where money went not only to providing first-class drugs, but also food, transportation, and even mental counseling. As Farmer said at a commencement speech at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, “accompaniment” became the central emphasis of his comprehensive health care approach. “To accompany someone is to go somewhere with him or her, to break bread together,” he said. “I believe we introduced the term "donkey rental fee" to the health policy literature.” But the results of his holistic approach were persuasive. In less than three years of work implementing simple programs like using community-based workers to ensure patients stayed on their treatment schedules, cure rates for multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis in Lima reached 83 percent.

West Africa needs more, better-equipped Ebola treatment units, as well as long-term commitments to improve public health infrastructure in order to control epidemics like this, but right now it also needs tools to help protect health workers—whether or not they are trained professionals—who are fighting the virus in villages and neighborhoods. “The idea that some lives matter less is the root of all that is wrong with the world,” Farmer told writer Tracy Kidder. As the international health community steps up efforts to control the spread of Ebola, it’s worth remembering.

Behold The Best Slow-Motion Camera On The Market

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Phantom v2511
Vision Research
In the time it takes to blink, the Phantom v2511 has already captured more than 7,500 frames of video. Expand that rate to one second, and the v2511 captures 25,600 frames at a resolution of about 1 megapixel. That’s still a far cry from the 1-trillion-FPS camera MIT researchers developed in 2011, but unless you plan to record the motion of light, it should work just fine.

By The Numbers

39.32: Gigabytes of memory per second used by the Phantom v2511, thousands of times more than the iPhone 5S’s slow-motion camera.

70: The rate at which a male ruby-throated hummingbird’s wings beat per second, measurable only through high-speed imaging.

128: The minimum FPS required for a camera to be defined as “high speed,” by the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers.

12: Frames shot in less than half a second when Eadweard Muybridge proved in 1878, that all of a horse’s hooves leave the ground during a gallop.

Be sure to check out our previous experiments with slow motion filming at PopSci Slo-Mo.

This article originally appeared in the October 2014 issue of Popular Science, under the title 'The Ultimate Slo-Mo Camera.'

Camera-Toting Drones Are Coming To Hollywood

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Hexarotor Filming Mountain Climbers In Haute-Savoie, France
Tangopaso, via Wikimedia Commons

After four years of lobbying by the Motion Picture Association of America, the Federal Aviation Administration announced yesterday that movie producers can fly drones to shoot film. This is good news for commercial drone use in the United States, but it might be too little, too late. As the FAA stalls on defining drone regulations, leaving commercial UAVs grounded throughout the U.S., other countries are leading the world in civilian drone applications. Allowing them to fly in Hollywood through exemption shows just how far the FAA is from fully integrating drones into American skies.

For the FAA to sign off on the drone flights, six companies had to prove that their machines were safe. The negotiated deal mandates that the drone controllers have pilot certificates, they’ll fly within line of sight, and they’ll keep flights combined to a “sterile area” of film sets. In addition, the drones will be inspected before every flight, and won’t fly at night. In exchange for these safety guarantees, the FAA ruled the drone companies exempt from “regulations that address general flight rules, pilot certificate requirements, manuals, maintenance and equipment mandates.”

In essence, the FAA exemption for these working drones carves out a middle ground between model airplane rules and regular aircraft regulation. It’s a change that’s been long in the making, and points (hopefully) to a future of reasonable regulation of drone use. Michael Toscano, president of the pro-drone business group Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, said in a statement about the FAA news that:

The FAA’s announcement represents another important milestone in unlocking the commercial potential of UAS technology. The film and television industry has safely used UAS technology abroad for years in the productions of movies such as ‘Skyfall’ and ‘The Hunger Games.’ With this decision, Hollywood will now be able to capture the unique perspectives of UAS closer to home.

The six companies that the FAA granted the exemption to are Astraeus Aerial, Aerial MOB, HeliVideo Productions, Pictorvision Inc, RC Pro Productions Consulting, Vortex Aerial, and Snaproll Media. All use drones for filming, to take advantage of the unique angles, close shots, and low costs that drones offer filmmakers. Several, including Aerial MOB and Vortex Aerial, have experience filming commercials, especially car commercials.

While the new ruling is a modest move by the FAA, it bodes well for the future--as long as the FAA is willing to make more exemptions for drones that, while clearly airborne, don’t interfere with regular air traffic.

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